Author: Shuzhong Ma, Yuxi Chai, Hongsheng Zhang*

Abstract: China’s cross-border e-commerce industry has demonstrated stable and rapid development thanks to the implementation of appropriate policy support and the progressive establishment of e-commerce platforms. The industry’s prosperity suggests unique advantages of cross-border e-commerce, which are a result of promoting industrial transformation and accelerating economic restructuring. Due to asymmetric information and insufficient data, little research has been conducted on the current status and the trends of the industry as well as the magnitude of risk in cross-border e-commerce. Using the cross-border e-commerce hosting service database of BizArk, the present study has constructed an index for China’s export e-commerce prosperity and magnitude of risk which reveals that the industry: ① generally presents a tendency of solid growths; ②has seen a relatively stable situation of logistics facilitation and a drastic fluctuant tendency of customs facilitatio; ③has gradually shifted to contending for cheaper and more efficient marketing techniques as well as channels. ④has experienced a remarkable amelioration of risk magnitude.

Key words: Cross-border e-commerce, export trade, prosperity monitoring, risk forecast

JEL codes: F17, F23, F44

《中国与世界经济（英文版）》2018年3期